Expired Listings Convert 3x Faster Than Portal Leads (And How to Win Them in 2026)

Key Takeaways

• Expired listings sell at 22.8% compared to roughly 1% annually for portal leads, a difference that compounds dramatically over a full year of prospecting.
• 43% of expired listings relist within 90 days, which means the window to reach them is short and urgency is built into the lead type.
• Portal leads require 4.6 buyer leads to match the income of one listing deal. Expired leads put you directly in front of motivated sellers, skipping that math entirely.
• The agents who win expired listings fastest are the ones who call first and lead with a specific, differentiated pitch, not a generic listing presentation.

If you are spending $500 to $1,500 per month on Zillow Premier Agent or Realtor.com leads and wondering why your conversion numbers are not moving, the data has a clear answer. Portal leads convert at roughly 1% annually, according to Ylopo research. That means out of 100 leads you pay for, you can expect to close one deal per year. Expired listings, by comparison, convert at 22.8% according to a REDX study of 2.7 million leads. That is not a small difference. It is a structural advantage.

This post breaks down why expired listings outperform portal leads by such a wide margin, how long it realistically takes to convert an expired listing, and the specific call approach that gives you the best chance of winning the listing before another agent does.

What Is the Actual Conversion Rate for Expired Listings vs. Portal Leads?

The comparison is stark. Expired listings convert at 22.8% per the REDX 2.7 million lead study. Portal leads from Zillow, Realtor.com, Google, and Facebook convert at roughly 1% annually per Ylopo data. That is a 22x difference in conversion rate.

But conversion rate is only part of the story. The economics are equally important. According to Redfin agent data, the average buyer deal takes approximately 29 working hours to complete while the average seller deal takes roughly 7 hours. That means an agent earns approximately $1,456 per hour on seller leads versus $320 per hour on buyer leads. Portal leads skew heavily toward buyers. Expired listings are exclusively sellers. That gap in hourly earnings compounds across every deal you close in a year.

The agents still pouring money into portal leads often do so because the leads feel “ready” or “pre-qualified.” But a lead who fills out a home search form is not the same as a motivated seller who just had a listing expire. The intent and urgency are not comparable.

How Should You Approach an Expired Listing Seller?

The worst approach is also the most common: calling an expired seller with a generic listing pitch. These sellers just watched their previous agent fail to sell their home. They are not looking for another pitch. They are looking for a reason to believe this agent will be different.

Your opener needs to do three things. First, acknowledge the frustration without dwelling on it. Second, differentiate yourself with one specific, concrete advantage. Third, ask a question that gets them talking. Here is a framework that works:

1. Acknowledge: “I know your home was on the market and didn’t sell. That’s frustrating, and I don’t want to waste your time with the same conversation you’ve already had.”
2. Differentiate: “What I do differently is [specific marketing approach, pricing strategy, or buyer pool you have access to]. I’d like to show you exactly how that applies to your home.”
3. Ask: “Would you be open to a 15-minute conversation to see if my approach makes sense for your situation?”

The goal is a conversation, not a close. Agents who push for a listing appointment on the first call overwhelm sellers who are already skeptical. Agents who offer a quick, low-stakes conversation get much further. Once you are in the conversation, your data and specificity do the heavy lifting.For a more detailed call-by-call approach, the guide on how to prospect expired listings covers the full sequence from first contact through listing appointment.

What Script Works Best for Expired Listing Calls?

The most effective expired listing scripts share one characteristic: they are not scripts in the traditional sense. They are conversation guides. The difference matters because expired sellers have usually already received scripted calls from three to five agents by the time you reach them. A memorized pitch sounds like every other agent. A genuine, curious conversation sounds like someone worth listening to.

The questions that consistently work best are specific and forward-looking. Instead of asking “Why do you think your home didn’t sell?” try “If you were to relist, what would need to be different for you to feel confident it would sell this time?” That reframe moves the conversation from blame to planning, which is where you want to be.

Key script principles for expired listing calls:

• Never criticize the previous agent by name or implication. It signals poor character, not expertise.
• Reference something specific about their property or neighborhood to show you did your research before calling.
• Keep the first call under five minutes. Your job is to earn the next conversation, not win the listing in one call.
• Always close with a specific next step, a time to meet, a comparison report you will send, or a follow-up call date.

Agent Josh Roy books 15 consistent listings per month using expired leads as his primary source. He has used REDX since 2007 and credits the consistency of daily fresh data as the foundation that makes his follow-up cadence sustainable.

How Long Does It Take to Convert an Expired Listing?

The short answer is faster than almost any other lead type. 43% of expired listings relist within 90 days, according to REDX internal data. The average relist timeline is 45 days. That means the window between when a listing expires and when the seller commits to a new agent is measured in weeks, not months.

This urgency is what separates expired listings from GeoLeads or sphere of influence prospecting. With geographic farming, you are building awareness over 90 to 120 days before a conversion happens. With expired listings, a seller may be ready to relist within a week of their listing expiring. The agents who win these listings are almost always the ones who called first and followed up consistently.

The REDX Expired Leads feed is refreshed daily, which means you can call new expireds the same morning they appear. That same-day response window is a meaningful competitive edge, since most agents do not have a system to act that quickly.

Why Expired Leads Win in 2026 and How to Build Your System

The case for prioritizing expired listings over portal leads is not about dismissing one channel and embracing another. It is about understanding which lead types give you the best return on your time and money. The math is not close.

Here is how to build a sustainable expired listing system starting this week:

1. Get a daily feed of new expired listings in your target markets. Without fresh data, you are always behind the agents who do have it.
2. Call the same day they expire. The first agent to call a motivated seller has a structural advantage that is almost impossible to overcome later.
3. Use a CRM to track every contact. Log every call, set follow-up reminders, and maintain a 30-day follow-up cadence for every lead you do not convert on the first touch.
4. Pair expired leads with a strong listing presentation. The call gets you in the door. Your marketing plan, pricing strategy, and confidence close the listing. Review the 5-step listing appointment guide to sharpen that half of the process.
5. Track your conversion rate monthly. If you are below 15%, your follow-up cadence or your script likely needs work before you invest more in lead volume.

Portal leads are not worthless. But if your goal is listings in the next 30 to 60 days, expired listings offer a speed and conversion rate advantage that no portal product can match. The agents taking 3x more listings than average are not buying more Zillow leads. They are prospecting smarter.

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